Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad12…b115 finance 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,964 (-15%) realized −$3,194 · open +$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%156W / 115L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days−$2,575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% −$1,111
other 27% +$413
world 18% −$2,518
tech 8% +$9
politics 6% +$104
economics 2% +$22
sports 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 13 -12.2% -20.5% 69% 8% -49.2%
≤90d 245 +0.3% -9.3% 57% 26% -29.9%
all 271 -1.6% -10.9% 58% 25% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 25% -28.9%
10% -19.5% 15% -35.7%
15% -27.2% 12% -41.9%
20% -34.4% 11% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$53 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$3,106
Realized−$3,194
Unrealized+$230
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses156 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)271 / 273
History coverage140d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $1,346 $1,566 +$221 (+16%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 81¢ 81¢ $1,530 $1,540 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Jun 25 $936 +$43 +5%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $2,739 −$2,715 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 05 $465 +$33 +7%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $599 +$22 +4%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M? Jun 03 $161 +$27 +17%
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $62 +$2 +3%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? Jun 03 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $500 +$9 +2%
FDA approves MannKind's Afrezza? Jun 02 $275 +$3 +1%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 -10%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 -35%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Hertz (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Clorox (CLX) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the median home value in New York City be between $589,000 and $5 May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1 May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Merck & Co (MRK) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Dupont (DD) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wendy's (WEN) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Papa John's (PZZA) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Circle Internet (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 84¢ $9 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 78¢ $79 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $248 1h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? SELL Yes 93¢ $361 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $127 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 75¢ $405 3h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? SELL Yes 94¢ $532 3h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 89¢ $650 15h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? BUY Yes 85¢ $161 37h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,443 37h
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? BUY Yes 76¢ $505 37h
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 96¢ $612 3d
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 96¢ $73 3d
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 3d
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3d
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 94¢ $136 3d
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 3d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 20d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 79¢ $76 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 80¢ $202 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 79¢ $169 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 77¢ $48 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 80¢ $339 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 77¢ $72 22d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 83¢ $86 23d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 23d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $141 23d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,106.01 · official $3,106.01 (match) · 771 history records