Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad18…0b4f sports 1649 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 179d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$79,845 (-59%) realized −$79,845 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%576W / 1051L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$698est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 180d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$12,162
crypto 9% +$2,900
other 4% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -37.6% -43.6% 25% 25% -85.2%
≤30d 445 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% -57.5%
≤90d 951 -11.7% -20.1% 35% 35% -36.9%
all 1627 -10.7% -19.2% 35% 35% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 35% -26.5%
10% -26.9% 35% -33.6%
15% -34.0% 35% -40.0%
20% -40.5% 34% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$91 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79,845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses576 / 1051
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$698
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1627 / 1649
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1627 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Mets vs. Pirates Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Storm vs. Lynx Jun 19 $116 −$116 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Phillies vs. Astros Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Alanyaspor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Penguins vs. Kings Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Rays vs. White Sox Jun 19 $125 −$125 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to S Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
FC Volendam vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Bloomfield Bears vs. Wagner Seahawks Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Jun 19 $639 −$639 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Panthers vs. Ducks Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-10-23? Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Cardinals vs. Guardians Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-21? Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18? Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Mercury vs Fever Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 19 $151 −$151 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-04? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Oilers vs. Penguins Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Yankees vs. Red Sox Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Astros vs. Diamondbacks Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Liberty vs Wings Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Dodgers vs. Cardinals Jun 19 $101 −$98 -97%
Nationals vs. Dodgers Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New York City FC win on 2025-11-23? Jun 19 $239 −$239 -100%
Bruins vs. Sharks Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Cardinals vs. Mariners Jun 19 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Osasuna vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kentucky Wildcats Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $19 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $29 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $33 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $24 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $13 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records