Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad18…817a tech 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%76W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 47% $0
other 33% −$1
crypto 13% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 47 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 79 -3.4% -12.6% 96% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -10.3%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses76 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage221d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $780 end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 28h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 33d
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 50d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $5 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $5 53d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $3 54d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 54d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $4 55d
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 55d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 65d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY No 99¢ $3 66d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $4 68d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 69d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 70d
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 71d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 71d
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 72d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.95 · official $46.95 (match) · 166 history records