Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad1b…aaa5 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
other 18% +$5
politics 15% $0
sports 13% −$1
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -12.1% -20.5% 11% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 12 -9.2% -17.8% 8% 0% -10.2%
all 31 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.4% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage485d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $8 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $2 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $47 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $77 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 17 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 04 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $45 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $5 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $5 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $13 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $20 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $47 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $47 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $47 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $47 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.80 · official $40.80 (match) · 79 history records