Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AD 0xad1d…6f4b sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$395 (+155%) realized +$395 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$425
other 28% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 100% +5.7%
≤30d 2 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 100% +8.5%
≤90d 2 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 100% +8.5%
all 5 +70.8% +54.5% 80% 80% +133.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.5% 80% +133.1%
10% +39.7% 60% +110.8%
15% +26.2% 20% +90.5%
20% +13.9% 20% +71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +158% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$30 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.38 per $1 lost it wins $14.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage104d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$7 +17%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia May 28 $24 +$6 +25%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $104 +$405 +387%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $56 +$14 +25%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 57m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia BUY Japan 80¢ $24 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei SELL Chinese Taipei 85¢ $159 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $0 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $0 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $0 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $0 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $2 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $2 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $1 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 10¢ $4 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 15¢ $2 102d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 20¢ $3 103d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 20¢ $6 103d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 20¢ $1 103d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea SELL Japan 100¢ $70 103d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY Japan 79¢ $16 103d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY Japan 76¢ $10 103d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY Japan 82¢ $30 103d
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 103d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 22¢ $50 103d
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei BUY Chinese Taipei 22¢ $33 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records