Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad1e…ccac weather 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+3%) realized +$129 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate82%190W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$17
14 days+$100
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$102
other 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 33% -2.7%
≤30d 104 +11.2% +0.6% 93% 26% -3.7%
≤90d 233 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 31% -7.4%
all 233 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 31% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 31% -7.4%
10% -14.8% 14% -16.3%
15% -23.1% 9% -24.4%
20% -30.6% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses190 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage75d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $102 +$52 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $38 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $11 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 94¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 27h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 97¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $101 6d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $3 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 87¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $68 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.67 · official $68.67 (match) · 555 history records