Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad1e…6b90 sports 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,402 (+1%) realized +$1,401 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%60W / 33L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,640per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,099
7 days−$2,969
14 days−$2,969
30 days−$2,969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$4,855
other 13% −$4,325
crypto 5% +$209
economics 5% +$1,139
tech 3% +$54
politics 1% −$420
world 0% −$638
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 58% 42% -39.2%
≤30d 12 -7.1% -16.0% 58% 42% -39.2%
≤90d 21 -46.9% -52.0% 33% 24% -47.9%
all 93 -9.1% -17.8% 65% 39% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 39% -8.9%
10% -25.6% 25% -17.6%
15% -32.8% 14% -25.6%
20% -39.4% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,302) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$421 vs −$739 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$1,401
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses60 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage481d
Avg bet$1,640
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $508 −$487 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$107 +104%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$236 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,005 −$2,000 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$48 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,011 +$428 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $710 −$631 -89%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $812 −$800 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $501 +$31 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $202 +$98 +49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$201 +197%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 −$6 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Olivia Gade Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Apr 13 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 13 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $200 +$22 +11%
Knicks vs. Bulls Feb 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 24 $1,300 +$83 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6? Feb 05 $4,871 +$45 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $610 −$610 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Feb 03 $5,000 +$154 +3%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 25 $612 +$108 +18%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $7,000 +$1,121 +16%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 1) Dec 01 $500 +$71 +14%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Falcons vs. Colts Nov 10 $1,000 +$309 +31%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $19,922 +$4,979 +25%
Hellenic Championship: Yannick Hanfmann vs Vit Kopriva Nov 09 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $500 −$481 -96%
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 06 $1,400 +$78 +6%
Open de Moselle: Vitaliy Sachko vs Alexander Bublik Nov 06 $2,500 +$132 +5%
Hellenic Championship: Alexandre Muller vs Tomas Etcheverry Nov 05 $1,000 +$469 +47%
Jazz vs. Pistons Nov 05 $100 −$5 -4%
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Damir Dzumhur Nov 05 $500 +$24 +5%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $1,000 +$190 +19%
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Botic van de Zandschulp Nov 03 $100 +$67 +67%
Hellenic Championship: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Kamil Majchrzak Nov 03 $800 +$170 +21%
Open de Moselle: Jan Choinski vs Lorenzo Sonego Nov 03 $978 −$75 -8%
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula Nov 03 $999 −$999 -100%
Bears vs. Bengals Nov 03 $700 +$366 +52%
Open de Moselle, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Moez Echargui Nov 02 $500 +$36 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $14,266 +$2,710 +19%
Buffalo vs. Bowling Nov 02 $1,000 +$89 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 27m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $21 27m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $248 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $407 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $192 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,248 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,005 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,011 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $67 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $15 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $0 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $113 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $199 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $67 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $607 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.47 · official $101.47 (match) · 336 history records