Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad1f…6c61 crypto 504 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$661 (-1%) realized −$275 · open −$386
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%124W / 375L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$317
14 days−$260
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$722
politics 0% −$176
economics 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +22.3% +10.7% 24% 24% -2.9%
≤30d 94 +36.8% +23.8% 24% 24% -33.2%
≤90d 200 +11.5% +0.9% 22% 22% -19.8%
all 499 +16.6% +5.5% 25% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 25% -12.9%
10% -4.6% 24% -21.2%
15% -13.8% 23% -28.9%
20% -22.3% 22% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +35% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$73 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$937
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$386
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses124 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)499 / 504
History coverage288d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $314 $309 −$5 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $295 $240 −$55 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $302 $223 −$79 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $285 $123 −$162 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $128 $43 −$85 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $26 +$18 +69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $400 +$426 +106%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $138 −$132 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $87 −$83 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? Jun 20 $52 +$90 +175%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? Jun 19 $54 −$51 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Jun 19 $60 −$57 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $22 +$114 +511%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $144 +$215 +150%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $121 −$115 -96%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 18? Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$461 +505%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 16 $107 −$31 -29%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +141%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$58 +250%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $269 +$1,058 +393%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $234 −$221 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $108 −$101 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 14 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $146 −$138 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $55 +$261 +475%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $56 −$52 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 22¢ $74 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $211 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $313 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $211 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $209 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $42 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $55 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 33¢ $84 24h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? SELL Yes 82¢ $142 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $937.27 · official $937.43 (match) · 1536 history records