Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0xad1f…2570
crypto · 1402 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$63 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses77 / 1324
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1401 / 1402
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day100.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1401 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$65
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 50¢ 62¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 50¢ 38¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $82 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $84 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $138 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1401 +0.2% -9.3% 5% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 1401 +0.2% -9.3% 5% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 1401 +0.2% -9.3% 5% 3% -9.3%
all 1401 +0.2% -9.3% 5% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover100.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 3% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 3500 history records