Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AD 0xad22…c9f3 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$251 (-35%) realized −$253 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%3W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-63.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	14	-56.5%	-60.6%	21%	21%	-37.9%
all	15	-59.4%	-63.3%	20%	20%	-49.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.3%	20%	-49.1%
10%	-66.8%	20%	-53.9%
15%	-70.0%	20%	-58.4%
20%	-72.9%	20%	-62.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -59% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late -81% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$33 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.35 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$102

Realized−$253

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses3 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage97d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$30	−$29	-97%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$46	−$44	-95%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$16	−$15	-96%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$16	−$15	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	May 11	$77	−$42	-55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	May 11	$103	−$100	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	May 11	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	May 10	$103	+$56	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	May 10	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	May 10	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	May 09	$5	+$8	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	May 09	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	May 09	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the	May 08	$69	+$74	+108%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2	Mar 24	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	1h
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	46¢	$30	44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$26	44d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$16	44d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$16	44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$16	44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	10¢	$5	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$51	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$26	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$103	50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$5	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	51d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the	SELL No	30¢	$143	52d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the	BUY No	14¢	$69	97d
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2	BUY Yes	4¢	$100	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.27 · official $102.27 (match) · 26 history records