Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad26…589c crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,623 (+18%) realized +$19,171 · open −$548
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 68L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1,051per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,657
7 days+$2,148
14 days+$6,818
30 days−$2,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$9,877
world 33% +$15,012
economics 9% +$7,823
other 8% +$263
finance 5% +$3,925
sports 4% −$2,480
politics 3% +$3,018
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +53.2% +38.6% 54% 54% +64.9%
≤30d 30 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 33% -16.3%
≤90d 86 -17.4% -25.2% 27% 26% -5.1%
all 98 -6.3% -15.2% 31% 29% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 29% +9.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 29% -1.5%
15% -30.7% 28% -11.0%
20% -37.5% 26% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$950) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,639 vs −$455 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,377
Realized+$19,171
Unrealized−$548
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,051
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $845 $712 −$133 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1,080 $665 −$415 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $41 +$62 +152%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $357 +$160 +45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $411 +$839 +204%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $224 +$1,576 +702%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $177 +$125 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $66 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 +$10 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $456 +$302 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $197 −$196 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $378 −$378 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $96 −$95 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6,612 +$4,670 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $449 −$438 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $289 −$288 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $300 −$140 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $495 −$495 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $681 −$580 -85%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $248 +$242 +98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $303 −$302 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $15,041 −$279 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,095 −$1,087 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $1,187 −$1,174 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $445 −$445 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $329 +$859 +261%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,244 −$1,226 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 22 $3,810 −$1,868 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $501 +$499 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $193 +$220 +114%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 16 $692 +$43 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $375 +$875 +233%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 13 $775 −$75 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $275 −$275 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 13 $360 −$360 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $1,500 +$3,450 +230%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $315 −$315 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 09 $979 +$2,151 +220%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $347 −$338 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $453 −$445 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $633 −$600 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 07 $839 −$23 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,177 −$1,172 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $1,384 −$269 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $439 −$25 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $206 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $151 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $39 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $262 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $177 27h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $120 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 38h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $89 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $258 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $456 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,377.07 · official $1,377.57 (match) · 1794 history records