Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad26…da90 other 909 markets active 2h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$339 (+5%) realized +$451 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%331W / 507L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$542
14 days+$72
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$252
sports 39% +$207
politics 7% +$3
crypto 2% −$21
world 1% −$20
finance 0% −$4
economics 0% +$16
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +11.3% +0.7% 39% 39% +57.3%
≤30d 133 +13.7% +2.9% 47% 44% -5.9%
≤90d 212 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 43% -5.0%
all 838 +5.2% -4.8% 39% 38% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 38% -1.6%
10% -13.9% 37% -11.0%
15% -22.2% 36% -19.6%
20% -29.9% 35% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized+$451
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses331 / 507
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions44
Markets (closed)838 / 909
History coverage639d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $61 $66 +$5 (+9%)
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $31 $39 +$8 (+26%)
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+27%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-20%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 6¢ $122 $10 −$112 (-92%)
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B? No 40¢ 51¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+27%)
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 39¢ 46¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Tabi FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 76¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 +$2 +70%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 +$2 +73%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $3 +$3 +101%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switz Jun 25 $10 +$90 +874%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Wi Jun 25 $5 +$25 +488%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3 +$4 +146%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 +$4 +101%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$6 +119%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 +$5 +158%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $3 +$9 +294%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 +$7 +132%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $538 +$471 +87%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $3 +$7 +226%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$4 +119%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/ Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 1h
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 5¢ $5 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 10h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 10h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 10h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $3 10h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 18h
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 21h
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $3 27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $3 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY 33¢ $5 31h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 17¢ $5 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY 10¢ $5 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switz BUY 10¢ $10 2d
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Switze BUY 12¢ $5 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Swi BUY 12¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 11¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.77 · official $890.69 · 2149 history records