Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad26…dc93
sports · 29 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$35 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 1 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Rwanda 85¢ 46¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Sri Lanka 43¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Zimbabwe $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand New Zealand 31¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa West Indies 33¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Zimbabwe 29¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 11 $11 −$11 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 06 $5 $0 -6%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $15 −$7 -44%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $33 +$13 +40%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $10 −$3 -25%
Will West Indies reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Mar 01 $5 −$2 -33%
Will India reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 27 $5 +$1 +16%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $20 −$4 -22%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Feb 26 $40 −$20 -50%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Feb 25 $20 +$13 +64%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 24 $20 +$14 +68%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $10 +$20 +198%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $10 +$7 +72%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs Pakistan Feb 21 $10 −$1 -12%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Feb 20 $20 +$1 +6%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1) Feb 19 $5 −$5 -94%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 19 $5 +$13 +266%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 19 $15 +$4 +27%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 18 $5 $0 +3%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $10 −$6 -61%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 $0 +10%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 $0 +5%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $11 +$12 +105%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$33
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 85¢ $50 1h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 61¢ $11 95d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 31¢ $22 97d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 98d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 98d
T20 World Cup: England vs India SELL England 19¢ $8 98d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England 34¢ $15 99d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 73¢ $29 99d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 43¢ $17 99d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 42¢ $17 99d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 39¢ $16 101d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies SELL West Indies 20¢ $7 102d
Will West Indies reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World SELL Yes 22¢ $3 102d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies BUY West Indies 27¢ $10 104d
Will West Indies reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World BUY Yes 33¢ $5 104d
Will India reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 104d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan BUY Sri Lanka 43¢ $10 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand SELL England 25¢ $5 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand BUY England 50¢ $10 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 50¢ $11 104d
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 47¢ $10 105d
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa BUY West Indies 32¢ $10 106d
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa BUY West Indies 35¢ $10 106d
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa SELL South Africa 66¢ $20 106d
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa BUY South Africa 67¢ $10 106d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 100¢ $33 106d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 61¢ $20 106d
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa BUY South Africa 66¢ $10 107d
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe BUY Zimbabwe $5 107d
Will India reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 28 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 32% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 32% -12.8%
10% -21.5% 29% -21.1%
15% -29.1% 25% -28.7%
20% -36.1% 21% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.06 · official $27.06 (match) · 65 history records