Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad2a…99a3 sports 442 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,469 (-7%) realized −$4,456 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%179W / 261L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$988est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days+$1,205
14 days−$129
30 days−$1,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,908
other 0% +$21
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 50% +1.1%
≤30d 109 -28.0% -34.8% 34% 34% -15.5%
≤90d 440 -12.1% -20.5% 41% 40% -15.7%
all 440 -12.1% -20.5% 41% 40% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 40% -15.7%
10% -28.1% 37% -23.8%
15% -35.1% 33% -31.2%
20% -41.4% 29% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$116 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$4,456
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses179 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$988
Open positions2
Markets (closed)440 / 442
History coverage85d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs the bug 80¢ 92¢ $241 $277 +$35 (+15%)
Valorant: OXEN vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner OXEN 20¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $506 +$263 +52%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $366 −$360 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $408 −$6 -2%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $302 +$97 +32%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $207 −$204 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $66 −$66 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $101 −$99 -98%
Henrique Rocha vs. Nicolas Mejia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $693 −$684 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $457 −$457 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $577 +$423 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $317 −$310 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $109 +$150 +138%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $536 +$263 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $104 −$102 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $506 −$496 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $229 −$224 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $294 +$213 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $4 +$2 +44%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $430 +$291 +68%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $567 +$433 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $69 +$76 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $660 +$468 +71%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $619 +$628 +101%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $760 +$240 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $360 −$15 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $65 +$135 +206%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $320 +$500 +156%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $110 −$109 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $67 +$113 +170%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $171 +$179 +105%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$149 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $95 −$93 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $335 −$329 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $196 +$354 +180%
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $117 +$85 +73%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $264 −$259 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $194 +$106 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $308 −$307 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $93 −$92 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $96 +$54 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 79¢ $3 59m
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 79¢ $5 59m
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 79¢ $5 59m
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 79¢ $17 59m
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 79¢ $107 59m
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 79¢ $23 59m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $769 59m
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY the bug 83¢ $83 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $506 1h
Valorant: OXEN vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 20¢ $50 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $366 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $402 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $408 2h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $400 2h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 75¢ $302 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $207 7h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 57¢ $66 32h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $82 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
Henrique Rocha vs. Nicolas Mejia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $693 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 49¢ $99 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $455 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.04 · official $277.04 (match) · 1484 history records