Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad2a…d5a8 politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%11W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$8
sports 16% −$3
other 9% −$2
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% −$2
world 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -40.2% -45.9% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 6 -33.5% -39.8% 17% 0% -10.2%
all 64 -17.0% -24.9% 17% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -32.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -38.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -44.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage231d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -67%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $59 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 09 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 05 $55 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $191 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $60 $0 -1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -40%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $69 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $3 $0 -14%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $129 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 13? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 09 $1 $0 -17%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 47h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 18d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 0¢ $1 22d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 22d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 36d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 98d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 100d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 103d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 103d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 107d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 108d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 110d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 110d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 112d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 114d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 116d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 127d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 132d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 0¢ $2 135d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 135d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 135d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 138d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.99 · official $52.99 (match) · 311 history records