Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AD 0xad2c…694f other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$233 (+9%) realized +$220 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day168.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$217
tech 32% −$2
politics 11% +$16
world 9% +$2
sports 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 31% +8.7%
≤30d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 31% +8.7%
≤90d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 31% +8.7%
all 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 31% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 31% +8.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.1% 23% -1.7%
15% -12.5% 23% -11.2%
20% -21.1% 23% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$8 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.9 per $1 lost it wins $6.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day168.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $226 $271 +$45 (+20%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $190 $186 −$3 (-2%)
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Yes 90¢ 76¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+11%)
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 86¢ 47¢ $51 $28 −$23 (-46%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30? Jun 17 $46 −$21 -45%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$4 -8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -61%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $266 +$17 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $30 +$116 +391%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $103 +$7 +6%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$43 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 +$38 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$58 +56%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $122 +$9 +7%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 16 $233 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 36m
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 37m
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 1h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 1h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 1h
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 94¢ $57 1h
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 71¢ $113 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 89¢ $81 1h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 88¢ $84 1h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $166 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $38 3h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $221 3h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $22 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.37 · official $578.90 (match) · 178 history records