Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad2e…1a98 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 28% −$10
sports 13% +$46
tech 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +1.8% -7.9% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 8% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage130d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $408 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $430 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $205 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $211 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $150 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $352 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $339 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $393 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $428 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $370 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $373 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $447 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $405 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $342 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $167 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $204 24d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $153 24d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $153 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $211 25d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $211 27d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $175 27d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $209 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $209 28d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $150 28d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $150 28d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 28d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 30d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $165 30d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $165 30d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $210 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $210 31d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 31d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 32d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $216 32d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $217 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $164 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 393 history records