Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad2e…e2fb other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$269 (+24%) realized +$306 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$112
sports 17% −$37
crypto 14% +$106
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% +8.7%
≤30d 16 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% +8.7%
≤90d 16 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% +8.7%
all 16 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 38% +8.7%
10% -43.7% 38% -1.7%
15% -49.2% 38% -11.2%
20% -54.1% 31% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$30 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$306
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 18¢ $60 $26 −$34 (-57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $52 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $252 +$120 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $264 +$189 +71%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$106 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $61 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $25 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $373 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $453 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $62 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.41 · official $28.41 (match) · 33 history records