Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad2f…ac6a sports 515 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13,231 (+6%) realized +$13,218 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%473W / 41L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$401est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$468
7 days+$4,322
14 days+$4,530
30 days+$10,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,844
other 0% +$13
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 9% -2.2%
≤30d 137 +4.8% -5.2% 96% 8% -2.0%
≤90d 465 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 6% -4.4%
all 514 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 7% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -4.4%
10% -17.9% 4% -13.6%
15% -25.9% 3% -21.9%
20% -33.1% 2% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$581) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$79 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.06 per $1 lost it wins $5.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$13,218
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses473 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$401
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 515
History coverage201d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $112 +$13 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $3,418 +$30 +1%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $3,286 +$151 +5%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,250 +$12 +1%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $469 +$24 +5%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $243 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,064 +$210 +7%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $575 +$18 +3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,090 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $352 +$11 +3%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,922 +$116 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,522 +$454 +18%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,310 +$11 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $341 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,418 +$89 +4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,253 +$187 +8%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,191 +$65 +3%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,285 +$88 +3%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $97 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $411 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $225 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,337 +$29 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $78 +$7 +9%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3,305 +$29 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $307 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $2,703 +$677 +25%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $382 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $229 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $187 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,369 +$357 +15%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $174 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $2,492 +$1,628 +65%
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,459 +$60 +2%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $373 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,434 +$21 +1%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Phenomenon vs NA Last Hope - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Phenomenon vs NA Last Hope - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $678 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Rune Eaters (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 10 $376 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2,368 +$67 +3%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $984 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $824 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $3,447 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $3,418 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $3,437 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 95¢ $3,286 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $1,261 11h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 99¢ $1,250 11h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $492 11h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 95¢ $469 11h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $245 13h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 99¢ $243 13h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $3,275 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 93¢ $3,064 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $592 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 97¢ $575 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $1,100 37h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 99¢ $1,090 37h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $125 46h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 99¢ $124 46h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $363 47h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 97¢ $352 47h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $3,038 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 96¢ $2,922 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $2,977 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 83¢ $2,522 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $1,322 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 99¢ $1,310 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $345 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 99¢ $341 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.50 · official $112.50 (match) · 1189 history records