Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AD 0xad30…2697 economics 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 580d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$419 (-63%) realized −$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 580d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$447
crypto 15% +$82
economics 10% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -89.5% -90.5% 0% 0% -90.5%
≤30d 1 -89.5% -90.5% 0% 0% -90.5%
≤90d 1 -89.5% -90.5% 0% 0% -90.5%
all 5 -61.5% -65.2% 20% 20% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.2% 20% -68.3%
10% -68.5% 20% -71.4%
15% -71.6% 20% -74.1%
20% -74.4% 20% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$129 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage580d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 28 $500 −$447 -90%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 20 $100 +$82 +82%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $53 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $496 14d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 420d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 420d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 420d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 420d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 55¢ $100 579d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records