Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad31…1c1d sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$784 (-12%) realized −$772 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%66W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$418
14 days−$418
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$775
other 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -49.8%
≤30d 27 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 60 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 45% -18.6%
all 163 -13.5% -21.7% 40% 39% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 39% -20.5%
10% -29.2% 39% -28.1%
15% -36.1% 36% -35.0%
20% -42.3% 34% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$36 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$772
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses66 / 97
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage116d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 68¢ 100¢ $68 $100 +$32 (+47%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner XLG Gaming 40¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $223 −$221 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $79 +$188 +238%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $97 +$33 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $133 −$131 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$53 +172%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 27 $201 +$65 +32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 23 $63 −$62 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $101 +$59 +58%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 22 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner May 21 $73 −$72 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $61 +$64 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 20 $96 +$93 +97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 18 $75 +$22 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $137 −$136 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $61 +$28 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 17 $20 +$40 +197%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $51 +$53 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 16 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $69 −$68 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 16 $101 +$31 +31%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 May 12 $67 +$60 +90%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) May 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $30 +$25 +83%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 08 $21 +$20 +93%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 07 $20 +$2 +10%
Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Mar 31 $75 −$75 -99%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks Mar 31 $43 +$32 +74%
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5 Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $45 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $45 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $100 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $149 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $41 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $223 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 49¢ $20 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 27¢ $24 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $79 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $31 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $20 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $97 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $133 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 36¢ $31 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 17d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 18d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 75¢ $201 21d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 74¢ $50 23d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 66¢ $63 24d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY LNG Esports 43¢ $31 24d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 62¢ $101 25d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 25d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $73 26d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $101 26d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $35 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 26d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 57¢ $101 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.37 · official $100.37 (match) · 236 history records