Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad33…a3c5 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$382 (+30%) realized +$505 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$90
other 30% +$357
crypto 3% −$7
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +25.0% +13.1% 32% 30% +29.7%
≤30d 40 +25.0% +13.1% 32% 30% +29.7%
≤90d 40 +25.0% +13.1% 32% 30% +29.7%
all 40 +25.0% +13.1% 32% 30% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.1% 30% +29.7%
10% ← realistic here +2.3% 28% +17.3%
15% -7.6% 25% +6.0%
20% -16.7% 20% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$13 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$505
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)40 / 48
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 32¢ $120 $92 −$28 (-23%)
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 38¢ 22¢ $70 $41 −$29 (-42%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 38¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 26¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-43%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 −$10 -46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 +$7 +34%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $20 −$12 -57%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +323%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 +$327 +318%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$15 -30%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$6 -62%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$16 +41%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$42 +203%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$142 +138%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +44%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 +$13 +1283%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$73 +708%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $21 9m
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 15m
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 16¢ $9 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $20 8h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $21 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $36 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 22¢ $4 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.78 · official $226.78 (match) · 96 history records