Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad36…cb4c sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-15%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 38% -25.6%
≤30d 13 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 38% -25.6%
≤90d 13 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 38% -25.6%
all 13 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 38% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 38% -25.6%
10% -43.9% 38% -32.7%
15% -49.3% 38% -39.2%
20% -54.3% 31% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 44¢ 44¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $36 +$26 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $56 +$41 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $47 +$21 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $24 +$25 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $13 52m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $15 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $7 28h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $10 29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $36 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $10 30h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $16 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $22 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $79 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $10 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $11 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $37 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $56 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $20 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $24 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.59 · official $27.59 (match) · 29 history records