trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -65.8% | -69.1% | 14% | 14% | -27.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -42.1% | -47.7% | 38% | 31% | -21.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -42.1% | -47.7% | 38% | 31% | -21.1% |
| all | 28 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 57% | 36% | -15.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.6% | 36% | -15.4% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 29% | -23.5% |
| 15% | -29.4% | 29% | -30.9% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 18% | -37.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? | Yes | 69¢ | 64¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Nuggets | 70¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 08 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET | Jun 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Jun 05 | $3 | +$2 | +57% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | Jun 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 05 | $5 | +$1 | +14% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves | Jun 05 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers | Jun 04 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Feb 22 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 22 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 22 | $2 | $0 | +15% |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Feb 22 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Feb 22 | $2 | +$1 | +38% |
| Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Feb 22 | $4 | $0 | -12% |
| Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 21 | $2 | +$2 | +85% |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 20 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Feb 20 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 20 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-19? | Feb 20 | $1 | +$2 | +163% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | Feb 19 | $1 | +$1 | +91% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Feb 19 | $1 | −$1 | -56% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | Feb 19 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | Feb 19 | $1 | +$2 | +179% |