Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AD 0xad3a…9a90 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,578 (-3%) realized −$1,536 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%32W / 24L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,046per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$368
14 days+$358
30 days−$2,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,938
world 5% −$2,718
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.3% -40.6% 50% 50% +1.6%
≤30d 46 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 41% -15.5%
≤90d 56 -6.3% -15.2% 57% 41% -10.3%
all 56 -6.3% -15.2% 57% 41% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 41% -10.3%
10% -23.3% 34% -18.9%
15% -30.7% 21% -26.7%
20% -37.5% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,646) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$532 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$1,536
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses32 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage42d
Avg bet$1,046
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 90¢ 100¢ $600 $666 +$66 (+11%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $160 $52 −$108 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $524 +$197 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $735 +$216 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $705 +$230 +33%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $604 +$155 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $153 +$213 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $610 +$829 +136%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$510 +250%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $405 +$332 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,471 −$248 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $1,213 +$691 +57%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $409 −$400 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $503 +$130 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $358 −$350 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $603 −$600 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $454 +$217 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $714 −$700 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $818 +$2,660 +325%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $965 −$654 -68%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $503 +$114 +23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $204 −$103 -50%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $4,271 −$3,450 -81%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $2,515 +$610 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $762 +$44 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,210 −$1,200 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $518 +$935 +180%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $2,504 +$125 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 31 $204 −$204 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $275 −$275 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 31 $256 −$256 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $408 −$408 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 31 $359 +$180 +50%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,211 +$439 +20%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,316 +$198 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,414 +$487 +34%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,409 +$319 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,206 +$209 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2,106 +$200 +10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3,609 +$184 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $3,564 +$174 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3,309 +$206 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $602 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 10¢ $42 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 23¢ $102 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $721 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $524 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 27¢ $102 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $951 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $132 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 82¢ $603 4h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 63¢ $202 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 81¢ $503 25h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $82 25h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $154 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $759 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $103 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $604 28h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $10 13d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $60 14d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $100 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $2,600 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $153 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $510 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $406 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $204 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $204 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $405 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 15¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 90¢ $1,630 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $1,002 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 93¢ $701 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.00 · official $718.00 (match) · 137 history records