Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad3c…6a9b
sports · 13 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$9 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$26
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 5 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Yes 30¢ 76¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+152%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Knicks 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 53¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Cloud9 46¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% $0
crypto 18% +$9
other 10% +$1
finance 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 46¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $1 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 73¢ $5 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $5 41h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $5 46h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) BUY New York Liberty 55¢ $5 46h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Chicago Sky 52¢ $5 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $5 47h
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $5 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 32¢ $5 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.2% +9.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
≤30d 8 +21.2% +9.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
≤90d 8 +21.2% +9.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
all 8 +21.2% +9.6% 62% 62% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 62% +13.9%
10% -0.9% 62% +3.0%
15% -10.5% 50% -6.9%
20% -19.2% 50% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.06 · official $26.06 (match) · 19 history records