Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad42…5d73 sports 1109 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 183d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$134 (+1%) realized +$136 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%566W / 510L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$29
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$62
sports 28% +$168
other 19% −$51
crypto 6% −$39
politics 4% −$7
economics 1% +$9
weather 0% +$8
tech 0% −$4
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 23% -11.2%
≤30d 73 +3.2% -6.6% 63% 25% -10.0%
≤90d 242 +0.2% -9.4% 64% 23% -9.3%
all 1076 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 30% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 30% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 24% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 21% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 19% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses566 / 510
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1076 / 1109
History coverage184d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1076 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 65¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 77¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 78¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 85¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 66¢ 75¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $40 −$4 -9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $50 −$3 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $110 +$4 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $22 −$3 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$11 -26%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -21%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $70 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $61 −$10 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $20 −$2 -10%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$6 -57%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 02 $5 $0 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$19 +91%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +38%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $95 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $170 −$11 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $40 −$3 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 57m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 54¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 55¢ $7 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $10 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 62¢ $10 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 59¢ $7 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $4 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $10 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $10 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $10 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $10 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $8 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $10 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 81¢ $1 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 81¢ $11 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 66¢ $10 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 8h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $10 17h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 17h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $11 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $10 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $11 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.41 · official $223.56 (match) · 3500 history records