Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad42…c918 weather 1107 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$340 (-1%) realized −$350 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%771W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day64.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$143
14 days+$232
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +2.4% -7.4% 81% 24% -6.5%
≤30d 610 +2.1% -7.6% 80% 24% -7.2%
≤90d 1079 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 21% -9.1%
all 1079 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 21% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 1% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses771 / 308
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1079 / 1107
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day64.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1079 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $54 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 83¢ 96¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? No 93¢ 94¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? No 92¢ 95¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? No 84¢ 96¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? No 93¢ 90¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 93¢ 99¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? No 94¢ 88¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? No 90¢ 86¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 94¢ 80¢ $24 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? No 93¢ 93¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? No 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? No 88¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? No 93¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 90¢ 98¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 18? No 85¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? No 84¢ 88¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 16 $46 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$4 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $47 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $23 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $55 10m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $46 31m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $15 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $16 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $18 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 85¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $38 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $47 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $29 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $753.17 · official $752.36 (match) · 3500 history records