Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad43…1427
weather · 918 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$138 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$138 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses692 / 212
Open positions13
Markets (closed)904 / 918
History coverage37d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day87.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 904 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$15
14 days−$92
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 70¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? No 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 10? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$9 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on June 1 Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% +$9
culture 3% −$80
crypto 1% −$60
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 98¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 96¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -1.0% -10.5% 93% 3% -9.0%
≤30d 672 -15.0% -23.1% 70% 5% -14.0%
≤90d 904 -4.8% -13.9% 77% 5% -10.6%
all 904 -4.8% -13.9% 77% 5% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 5% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 4% -19.2%
15% -29.7% 4% -27.0%
20% -36.6% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.03 · official $120.59 (match) · 3500 history records