Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad45…f4b5 crypto 48 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -9.4% -18.1% 49% 47% -13.0%
≤30d 48 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 46% -7.5%
≤90d 48 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 46% -7.5%
all 48 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 46% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 46% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -16.4%
15% -27.9% 33% -24.4%
20% -34.9% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$6 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$15 +158%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$8 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$11 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$7 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$4 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$17 +215%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +174%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records