Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad45…df42 crypto 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,162 (-6%) realized −$1,142 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%136W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day117.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$724
7 days−$724
14 days−$897
30 days−$913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$932
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -28.6% -35.4% 46% 27% -39.3%
≤30d 192 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 28% -13.8%
≤90d 192 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 28% -13.8%
all 192 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 28% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 28% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 16% -22.0%
15% -28.0% 7% -29.6%
20% -35.1% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$50 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$1,142
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses136 / 56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)192 / 195
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day117.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $77 $95 +$18 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 79¢ 86¢ $63 $69 +$6 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 68¢ 54¢ $66 $52 −$14 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 22¢ 14¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 30¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $118 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$54 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$58 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$21 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$48 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$51 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$14 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $163 −$52 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $508 −$421 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $46 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $89 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $97 −$19 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $183 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $163 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $127 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $86 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $80 −$69 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $36 +$10 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $180 −$7 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $165 +$39 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $178 +$48 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $177 +$13 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $182 −$87 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.90 · official $217.08 · 3500 history records