Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad47…96e8 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$37 (+6%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$22
crypto 16% +$5
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.5% -32.6% 50% 25% -30.3%
≤30d 4 -25.5% -32.6% 50% 25% -30.3%
≤90d 27 -47.5% -52.5% 30% 26% -29.1%
all 28 -40.8% -46.5% 32% 29% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 29% -1.8%
10% -51.6% 25% -11.2%
15% -56.3% 21% -19.8%
20% -60.5% 21% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage112d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $66 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $48 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $38 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $38 +$3 +9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $67 +$18 +26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $38 −$14 -37%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Sal Da Vinci win Sanremo 2026? Mar 01 $57 +$80 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $68 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $35 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $33 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $49 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $24 20h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 47¢ $13 30h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 50¢ $39 37h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 66d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 67d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 67d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 71d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 71d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 71d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 71d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 71d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $8 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.25 · official $161.25 (match) · 75 history records