Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad48…936b other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%21W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$22
politics 30% −$15
sports 14% +$32
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 150 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 8% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses21 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage130d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $299 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $254 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $287 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $279 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $279 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $317 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $268 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $322 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 19h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 22h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 39h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 39h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 45h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 20d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $254 23d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $254 24d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $287 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.97 · official $52.97 (match) · 463 history records