Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad48…98e1 world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$2
other 10% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 4% −$8
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 22 -7.2% -16.0% 32% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -11.3%
10% -24.1% 0% -19.8%
15% -31.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -38.1% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage466d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $91 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 18 $7 $0 -5%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $45 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $0 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $48 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $12 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $8 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $18 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $36 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $43 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records