Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad49…bbeb politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2
other 16% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 5% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage177d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $190 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $190 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 25 $190 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $190 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $182 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 31 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $93 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $93 14h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $93 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $93 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $92 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $92 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $93 33d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 36d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 37d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 41d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 41d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $93 47d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $93 48d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 68d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 68d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $190 86d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $190 87d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 94d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 95d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 100d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 100d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $190 103d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $190 103d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 105d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 105d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $190 113d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $190 113d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 119d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records