Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad49…2b04 weather 893 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$143 (+9%) realized +$142 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate71%643W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$12
crypto 48% +$4
world 0% $0
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -48.4% -53.3% 36% 12% -32.8%
≤30d 92 -16.1% -24.1% 67% 15% -14.5%
≤90d 485 -3.0% -12.3% 88% 14% -10.4%
all 903 -1.8% -11.1% 71% 31% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 31% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 22% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 21% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses643 / 260
Open positions5
Markets (closed)903 / 893
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 903 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 72¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -760%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1006%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -511%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -250%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 94¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? BUY No 90¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.19 · official $7.86 · 3500 history records