Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad4a…ddb8 weather 896 markets active 78d ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$125,478,460 (+407518%) realized +$125,478,644 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate17%155W / 782L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 30% −$7,806
other 25% −$5,095
tech 16% −$4,805
crypto 14% −$3,009
politics 6% −$1,394
sports 5% −$1,313
world 3% −$883
culture 2% −$437
finance 0% −$69
economics 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 918 -46.1% -51.2% 15% 7% -82.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.2% 7% -82.4%
10% ← realistic here -55.9% 5% -84.0%
15% -60.2% 5% -85.6%
20% -64.1% 4% -87.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$34 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized+$125,478,644
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses155 / 782
Open positions10
Markets (closed)937 / 896
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 937 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? No 77¢ 4¢ $196 $9 −$187 (-95%)
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No 89¢ 82¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -0¢ 5¢ $-0 $4 +$4 (-15331%)
Will Mauricio Ruffy be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-0 $0 +$0 (-185%)
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-0 $0 +$0 (-545%)
Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-0 $0 +$0 (-545%)
Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-0 $0 +$0 (-545%)
Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-0 $0 +$0 (-248%)
Will Baidu have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-0 $0 +$0 (-248%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +93500%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Tre Johnson win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +274800%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will Collin Murray-Boyles win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on February 7? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +290200%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +112900%
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7 Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Matjaž Han be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +233200%
Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Zoran Stevanović be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Walter Clayton Jr. win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 19 $0 $0 +128200%
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Luka Mesec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 7 Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on February 18? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South Mar 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next S Mar 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will The Voice of Hind Rajab win Best International Feature Film at th Mar 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic g Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Mar 01 $20 −$13 -66%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%? Mar 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 6? Feb 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 19? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 78d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 61¢ $107 81d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $2 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $1 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $2 91d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $1 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $2 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 93d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $1 93d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 93d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 93d
Will Pauline Hanson's One Nation win the most seats in the next South BUY Yes 1¢ $0 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $648.45 · official $648.47 (match) · 3500 history records