Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad4b…7ff9
sports · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$3 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage32d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -75%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $3 +$6 +190%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$4 -63%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% $0
other 42% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.4% -22.6% 33% 33% -8.7%
≤30d 5 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 40% -0.8%
≤90d 6 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 33% -19.6%
all 6 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 33% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 33% -19.6%
10% -20.4% 33% -27.3%
15% -28.1% 33% -34.3%
20% -35.1% 33% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.58 · official $4.58 (match) · 12 history records