Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad4b…e93d sports 242 markets active 4h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,362 (+12%) realized +$11,362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%115W / 127L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$1,081
14 days−$9,701
30 days−$8,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$8,611
other 7% +$2,717
crypto 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.0% -49.3% 30% 30% -33.9%
≤30d 97 -58.2% -62.1% 21% 21% -41.4%
≤90d 97 -58.2% -62.1% 21% 21% -41.4%
all 242 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 46% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 46% +1.1%
10% -17.5% 44% -8.6%
15% -25.5% 41% -17.4%
20% -32.8% 37% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$413 vs −$285 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses115 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage253d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $521 +$505 +97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $269 −$264 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $912 −$900 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$191 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $773 +$237 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$10 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$134 +66%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$85 +84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $253 +$73 +29%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $165 +$103 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$103 -52%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $300 −$224 -74%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $521 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $509 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $269 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $912 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $105 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $697 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $773 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $193 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $196 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $93 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $187 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $221 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 48¢ $105 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $32 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $156 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,988 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5,331 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 626 history records