Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AD 0xad4d…37e3 crypto 8 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+41%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$1
other 29% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
≤30d 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
≤90d 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
all 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.7% 62% +21.4%
10% ← realistic here +13.7% 62% +9.7%
15% +2.7% 50% -0.9%
20% -7.4% 50% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records