Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad50…3122 weather 376 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,726 (+8%) realized +$7,313 · open −$587
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate32%117W / 246L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day105.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$1,332
other 2% +$89
sports 0% +$35
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -9.0% -17.7% 21% 16% -7.1%
≤30d 358 +1.3% -8.4% 32% 21% -7.2%
≤90d 363 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 20% -7.3%
all 363 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 20% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 20% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 17% -16.1%
15% -26.0% 16% -24.2%
20% -33.2% 15% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$10 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$7,313
Unrealized−$587
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses117 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)363 / 376
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$228
Trades / day105.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $28 −$5 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $33 $27 −$7 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+31%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 42¢ $14 $21 +$6 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $98 $1 −$97 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+267%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $447 $0 −$447 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +407%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 29? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 14? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6? Jun 18 $1 +$112 +11228%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4? Jun 18 $2 +$10 +636%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -1358%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 18 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $746 +$19 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $225 +$35 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $33 +$33 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 −$12 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$59 +234%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $7 +$6 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $77 −$48 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$91 +2275%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -60%
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$53 +190%
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $12 −$6 -53%
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -86%
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,512 +$163 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $704 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 54m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $682 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 75¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.80 · official $291.42 (match) · 3500 history records