Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad50…1d19
other · 52 markets active 0h ago
8.5score
+$383 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$709 · open −$326
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,155
Realized+$709
Unrealized−$326
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses31 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage48d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit12%
Chart Positions 7 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,129
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2,691 $2,712 +$21 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2,715 $2,459 −$255 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,400 $1,492 +$92 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,500 $1,316 −$184 (-12%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 +$8 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $42 −$39 -95%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Jun 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$43 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,135 +$1,047 +49%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $453 +$23 +5%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $126 +$43 +34%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $126 +$17 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $151 +$41 +27%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $152 +$116 +76%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $176 +$40 +23%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $152 +$81 +54%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $152 +$109 +71%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $126 +$69 +55%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $84 −$40 -47%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $116 +$30 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $177 +$36 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $151 +$27 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $136 −$129 -95%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $151 +$23 +15%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $70 +$1 +1%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 +$10 +19%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? Apr 26 $43 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$351
sports 1% +$22
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $79 12m
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 13m
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $21 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $8 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 81¢ $38 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $32 12h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 27h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $47 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,494 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,600 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $863 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,319 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $213 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $213 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $437 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $511 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $533 28d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,065 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $802 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $958 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $953 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $953 30d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $375 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -42.9% -48.3% 35% 35% -11.2%
≤30d 17 -42.9% -48.3% 35% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 45 -1.7% -11.0% 69% 64% -0.2%
all 45 -1.7% -11.0% 69% 64% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 64% -0.2%
10% -19.5% 47% -9.8%
15% -27.3% 29% -18.5%
20% -34.4% 13% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,154.96 · official $8,154.96 (match) · 153 history records