Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AD 0xad52…990f sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,411 (-22%) realized −$5,410 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 30L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$275est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,076
7 days−$829
14 days−$1,283
30 days−$5,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,976
other 8% −$1,278
world 5% −$1,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -23.8% -31.1% 32% 32% -17.2%
≤30d 39 -21.2% -28.7% 36% 36% -35.7%
≤90d 39 -21.2% -28.7% 36% 36% -35.7%
all 53 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 43% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 43% -26.7%
10% -30.5% 36% -33.7%
15% -37.2% 28% -40.1%
20% -43.4% 25% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$546) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$360 vs −$421 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$5,410
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage248d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $143 +$225 +158%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 −$96 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $505 −$500 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $460 +$1,151 +250%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $509 −$29 -6%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $473 +$101 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,014 +$838 +83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $104 +$94 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $392 −$388 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $345 −$340 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,116 −$1,100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,046 +$2,611 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 +$58 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$131 +64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $112 +$306 +272%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $183 +$34 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $918 −$900 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 06 $465 +$132 +28%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $716 −$700 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $90 +$19 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $918 −$900 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $557 −$546 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $625 −$612 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $369 −$17 -5%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) May 24 $894 +$230 +26%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 23 $1,154 −$1,130 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $900 +$529 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $520 +$183 +35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 02 $600 +$657 +109%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $320 +$165 +52%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Oct 30 $40 +$43 +108%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $320 +$188 +59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 29 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 29 $400 +$156 +39%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 29 $600 +$114 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $300 +$148 +49%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $278 −$278 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $162 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $368 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $143 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $153 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $99 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. BUY 17¢ $204 32h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco w BUY 33¢ $230 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $56 32h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $505 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 14¢ $172 46h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 46h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a d BUY $205 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $460 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $480 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $473 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $506 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1,014 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $392 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $305 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $142 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $153 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $509 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.67 · official $158.67 (match) · 118 history records