Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad52…11ac
world · 92 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$3,470 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,912 · open +$647
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,182
Realized+$1,912
Unrealized+$647
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions73
Markets (closed)50 / 92
History coverage11d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day327.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 73 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,266
7 days+$1,417
14 days+$1,912
30 days+$1,912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 16¢ $690 $1,626 +$935 (+136%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $606 $1,220 +$614 (+101%)
Will Trump deport 400-500k people? Yes 22¢ 46¢ $412 $839 +$427 (+104%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $706 $697 −$9 (-1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $437 $643 +$206 (+47%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $634 $568 −$66 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 36¢ 20¢ $624 $342 −$282 (-45%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $314 $336 +$22 (+7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $106 $280 +$174 (+165%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $633 $264 −$369 (-58%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $218 $221 +$3 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $244 $217 −$28 (-11%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 53¢ 46¢ $186 $162 −$24 (-13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $183 $162 −$21 (-12%)
Will Trump deport 300-400k people? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $167 $161 −$6 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $156 $150 −$6 (-4%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $158 $139 −$19 (-12%)
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? Yes 31¢ 58¢ $74 $139 +$65 (+88%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $36 $135 +$100 (+277%)
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $109 $132 +$23 (+21%)
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $177 $131 −$46 (-26%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $148 $116 −$32 (-22%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $248 $88 −$160 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $105 −$29 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $932 +$151 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $158 −$4 -3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $197 +$74 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $149 −$4 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $133 +$22 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $637 +$594 +93%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $211 −$149 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1,099 +$514 +47%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $144 +$113 +78%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $215 −$28 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $284 −$18 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $236 −$123 -52%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $11 +$14 +125%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $385 +$347 +90%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $277 −$18 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $480 −$168 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 10 $218 −$5 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $56 +$12 +21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $228 −$111 -49%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $178 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $136 +$45 +33%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $11 +$18 +158%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $411 +$10 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $221 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $449 −$115 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,091 +$357 +33%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $67 −$3 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 07 $326 −$5 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 06 $186 $0 +0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $11 +$6 +49%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $33 +$297 +901%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $194 +$83 +43%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Jun 05 $16 +$6 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $67 +$33 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $50 +$11 +22%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 03 $101 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $41 +$61 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% +$2,577
other 21% +$236
tech 1% +$57
politics 1% −$76
finance 1% −$123
sports 1% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $273 50m
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $2 52m
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $51 59m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $433 1h
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $167 1h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 1h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $74 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 1h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $156 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $55 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +8.9% -1.4% 50% 36% +3.8%
≤30d 50 +31.5% +19.0% 58% 42% +7.5%
≤90d 50 +31.5% +19.0% 58% 42% +7.5%
all 50 +31.5% +19.0% 58% 42% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover327.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 42% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 34% -2.8%
15% -2.8% 26% -12.2%
20% -12.3% 14% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,182.22 · official $10,184.11 (match) · 3500 history records