Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad58…3773 other 389 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,234 (+5%) realized +$1,235 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%164W / 222L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$201
14 days−$1,094
30 days−$1,899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,312
sports 9% −$67
world 1% −$139
crypto 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +134.4% +112.0% 50% 50% +13.8%
≤30d 61 +27.4% +15.3% 38% 38% -30.1%
≤90d 120 +24.7% +12.8% 47% 47% -4.3%
all 386 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 41% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 41% -5.5%
10% -18.6% 39% -14.6%
15% -26.4% 35% -22.8%
20% -33.7% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$50 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$1,235
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses164 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)386 / 389
History coverage236d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 36¢ 35¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 23¢ 23¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $57 +$150 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $61 +$47 +77%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $66 −$17 -25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $13 +$43 +324%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $51 +$40 +79%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 +$24 +237%
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$9 +50%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $81 +$62 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $10 −$4 -41%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$40 +79%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$88 -87%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$47 -96%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +145%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$20 +42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -5%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 −$56 -54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 +$80 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$77 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $45 +$108 +237%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $282 −$279 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $180 +$102 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,083 −$1,070 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$17 +408%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $499 +$568 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $387 −$382 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $188 +$298 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$176 +44%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $72 −$66 -92%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $64 −$62 -97%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $32 +$13 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $54 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $57 12h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $107 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 31¢ $49 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 15h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 15h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $61 15h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $56 17h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $91 17h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 17h
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $13 26h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 34h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 36h
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 37h
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 37h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 38h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 38h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $6 38h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $10 40h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 40h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $91 40h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.80 · official $251.66 (match) · 629 history records