Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad58…7624 weather 507 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,546 (-4%) realized −$3,321 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%132W / 596L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day54.7pace
Fees−$1,226est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,739
7 days−$2,917
14 days−$3,701
30 days−$3,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$529
other 40% −$428
politics 6% −$14
weather 3% −$192
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -84.0% -85.5% 8% 1% -44.0%
≤30d 622 -51.3% -55.9% 17% 9% -20.4%
≤90d 728 -43.3% -48.7% 18% 10% -13.0%
all 728 -43.3% -48.7% 18% 10% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.7% 10% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -53.6% 9% -21.3%
15% -58.1% 9% -28.9%
20% -62.2% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$2,866
Realized−$3,321
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses132 / 596
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1,226
Open positions42
Markets (closed)728 / 507
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$198
Trades / day54.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 63¢ $268 $189 −$79 (-29%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $197 $186 −$10 (-5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $168 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $100 $166 +$66 (+66%)
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 91¢ $118 $134 +$15 (+13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $106 $104 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $82 −$19 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $68 $75 +$7 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $75 $65 −$10 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $60 −$38 (-39%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $58 −$40 (-41%)
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on Febru Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 9? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on February 8? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 6? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 27? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 17? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 27? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 14? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on Janua Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on February 7? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 14? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 26? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 21? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 15? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 28? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C or higher on February 6? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 8? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 26? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 22? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 5? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on Febru Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 20? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on January 31? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C on January 21? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 6? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 27? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 26? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St BUY Yes 77¢ $13 13m
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY No 7¢ $0 18m
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 92¢ $67 20m
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY No 7¢ $0 22m
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 92¢ $16 23m
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $2 29m
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 92¢ $9 34m
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 42m
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St BUY Yes 77¢ $14 42m
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St BUY Yes 77¢ $13 43m
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY No 28¢ $28 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $41 2h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 29¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY Yes 68¢ $68 2h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 63¢ $16 2h
Will Croatia be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $184 2h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $160 2h
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY No 7¢ $1 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $47 3h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $9 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $140 3h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $1 3h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $22 3h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $44 3h
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,866.16 · official $2,865.89 (match) · 3500 history records