Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad58…9cbf
world · 64 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage521d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 2 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+43%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $68 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $122 +$4 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $158 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $124 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $17 −$2 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $17 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $84 −$5 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $44 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 +7%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 19 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $47 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $198 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $88 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $86 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $2 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $6 $0 +2%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$3
other 23% −$3
sports 17% −$7
politics 14% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $33 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $33 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $41 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $41 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 21 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 57 -2.5% -11.8% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 62 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $33.02 (match) · 312 history records