Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad5d…77ad other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 17% −$1
politics 15% −$1
sports 8% $0
culture 7% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 0% -10.2%
all 58 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage273d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$4 -14%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 10 $1 $0 -14%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 25 $12 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 23 $1 $0 -15%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 09 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Oct 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 30 $6 $0 -1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $29 8m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $29 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $12 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $21 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $12 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $11 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $6 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $6 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $28 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $37 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $35 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $2 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $8 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $25 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $35 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.62 · official $3.62 (match) · 201 history records