Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad5d…246d world 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$12
politics 14% −$2
other 8% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 22 -2.7% -11.9% 36% 0% -8.5%
all 62 -0.7% -10.1% 34% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage321d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 -10%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $40 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $96 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $123 +$11 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $48 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $50 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $43 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $27 −$3 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $77 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $3 $0 +9%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Aug 13 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on Augu Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $13 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $16 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $34 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $47 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $47 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $47 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $30 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.65 · official $44.88 (match) · 247 history records