Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad5f…f4e9 sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$386 (-15%) realized −$388 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate78%73W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$286
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 63% -21.4%
≤30d 93 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 58% -23.3%
≤90d 93 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 58% -23.3%
all 93 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 58% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 58% -23.3%
10% -22.7% 33% -30.6%
15% -30.2% 11% -37.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$35 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$388
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses73 / 20
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage9d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 68¢ 14¢ $52 $11 −$41 (-79%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 87¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 79¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $9 +$2 +27%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $9 +$1 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $9 +$3 +38%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $9 +$2 +18%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $50 −$41 -82%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $9 +$2 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $9 +$2 +27%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $9 +$3 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $9 +$2 +27%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 27 $9 +$3 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $77 +$16 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $76 +$13 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $102 +$9 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $155 −$154 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $78 −$77 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $78 +$18 +23%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $64 +$22 +34%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $18 +$3 +17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $43 +$11 +24%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $19 +$4 +20%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $33 +$2 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $44 +$4 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $45 +$13 +29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $44 +$2 +4%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $39 +$8 +20%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $38 −$38 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $23 −$22 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $38 +$3 +7%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $15 +$2 +12%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $33 +$11 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $33 +$9 +27%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $19 +$2 +12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $33 +$4 +12%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $26 +$6 +23%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $26 +$1 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $20 +$6 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $19 +$5 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $15 +$2 +12%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $14 +$3 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $14 +$4 +31%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $13 +$2 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $14 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $52 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 87¢ $8 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 79¢ $8 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 78¢ $9 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $9 16h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 94¢ $9 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 21¢ $2 16h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 84¢ $9 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 83¢ $41 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 86¢ $9 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 95¢ $9 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 91¢ $9 18h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 78¢ $9 19h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 78¢ $9 19h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 89¢ $9 19h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 73¢ $9 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $9 20h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 73¢ $9 20h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 92¢ $102 42h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $4 42h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $72 42h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $1 42h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 78¢ $77 43h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 78¢ $78 43h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $76 43h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 74¢ $78 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 95¢ $75 46h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $78 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 74¢ $39 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 74¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.92 · official $51.66 · 186 history records